2022年は一体どういう年になるのだろうか？大方の予想をすることは可能だが、かなり自虐的なものになるので、ここで示すのには抵抗感があるが、個人的にも予測はしてみたいので後述したい。オミクロン新型コロナ変異株の猛威が止まらない。新型コロナの世界の感染者数は300,000,000人に迫っている。2022年1月の半ば頃には到達するだろう。世界の人口は7,000,000,000人ほどだから、23人に1人は感染している計算になる。予防のワクチンは三回打っても四回、五回打っても、変異株が人類を嘲るように増えてく光景はこれからも続くと見ている。治験効果は製薬会社のアナウンスに頼らざるを得ない状況では、感染におののく人類は予防に効くとか効かないとかいう余裕は全くないので彼らに従うしかない。特に、日本ではワクチンや特効薬の開発には政府は投資してこなかったのが響き、自国ではなにもできない。他国任せの政策から抜け出す決意も方策もないのには甚だ残念に思う。専門家達のアナウンスでは致死率・重症化率はデルタ株より少ないらしいが、感染力は数倍以上あるそうだ。フランスでは46カ所の突然変異を持つ新たな変異株が出たそうだが、新型ウイルスには人類の思考を先回りして、より強い生命力をつけているようにしか見えない。オミクロン株より強力な変異株にならないか不安になる。中国での武漢ウイルス研究所に多額の投資をしていた米国にも私の心中では不信感が広がっている。はっきり言って米中合作の可能性も排除できないからだ。憶測だけでものを言うのは危険な事は分かってはいるが、推理と推測と合わせれば真実にたどり着く可能性はゼロではなくなる。だから、「THE NEW HISTORY EYES」では徹底的に歴史の証言を残すという意味で真実は絶対追及するべきだと思っている。日本では昭和天皇がマッカーサーとの11回にも及ぶ会見で、GHQ策定(ホイットニー氏が絡んだ)の日本国憲法で天皇家の保全と国体を保証する見返りに、敗戦国の宿命として未来永劫日本国内に米軍の駐留を認めしまった経緯がある。ドイツではヒトラーの独裁的専制政治体制という国体を解体し、一時期東西に別れたが健全な民主国家を維持するまでになり、メルケル政権下でベルサイユ条約に基づく賠償金を92年かけて完済した。日本では天皇制という国体は形を変えたが、皇室の役割は日本国憲法のなかで生きている。日本が民主主義という体制を健全な形に出来なかった起因ともなっている。日本では伝統的な皇室制度は必要だと思うが、まずは主権在民での国体を最優先するべきだった。しかし、今さら、日米安全保障条約・日米地位協定・日米原子力協定という三点セットからの影響が大きいからと言ってここで批判しても何も始まらない。太平洋戦争は戦う前から勝負は決していたのに、当時の日本の最高司令官(昭和天皇)は米国との開戦を決断してしまったそのツケは、戦後の耐えがたきを耐え、忍びがたきを忍んできた日本の国民の未来にも大きな禍根を残している。日本国内での米軍関係の基地を含む施設は130箇所（治外法権で日本の領土ではない）もある。オミクロン株の水際対策は、米軍関係からの派生が多いからといって日本側は防ぐ手立ては何もない。プレトンウッズ体制に基づく世界秩序は今後100年は揺らぎそうもない。日本にまともな議会制民主主義を期待するのは酷かもしれない。選挙権があるのに投票を行使しないことでも立派なルール違反だと思うし、議員報酬制度の抜本的見直しや選挙制度の見直しは、日本国憲法が未来永劫変えられない今、戦勝国から自治権だけが与えられているニッポンの最低限の務めだと思う。2022年の主な私観的予測を示してみたい。
Vol.0053… "1941-2021, 80 Years of Trajectory and Lessons"
December 8th (Japan time) this year marks the 80th anniversary of the start of the war between Japan and the United States, but it is quite natural that the post-war standing positions of the victorious Allied powers and the defeated Axis powers have not changed at all. My personal concern is that there is no world leader to drive the current turbulent world order. It is calculated that the generation who experienced World War II will be about 100 years old (assuming 20 years old at that time) in 10 years, but since there is no war experience, the sovereign always remembers the lessons of history and always keeps reason. It is doubtful that he could be a good ruler. US President Joe Biden's approval rating has plummeted, and it's easy to find out why. It seems that President Biden will hold a tournament online under the title of "Democracy Summit," but many countries do not agree with it. Tyranny is also true of prewar Japan (although some argue), but it is not a liberal economic zone like China or Russia, as there is no way to prove that democracy is the best governing system. From the side, it may be natural to feel that they are treated exclusively. It can be said that Japan is a democracy given after the war, but it does not necessarily permeate every corner of the country. First, the logic that "I don't go to vote because not being interested has the same meaning as the opposite" is wrong with the excuse that even if I get the right to vote, I will not participate in the vote. In the United States, when voting for an election, it is necessary to register for voting, so if Japan follows that and adopts a registration system, the turnout should rise dramatically. Those who are not interested in the election have effectively abandoned their voting rights. That will solve the problem. If you feel sorry, go to vote. The result didn't go as expected, and even if I participated in a demonstration, it was a later festival. Personally, I can't start irresponsibly saying political things here, but I'm just saying that I should exercise it properly because I have the right to participate in politics from the country. While the two-party politics is traditional in the United States, there is no big difference between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the postwar military global strategy. At the time of the dollar shock in the Nixon administration, the People's Republic of China was made a permanent member of the United Nations and replaced with the Republic of China. He said that even in a communist country, if it develops economically, it will be easier to incorporate it into the democratic camp, but the negative legacy of Chairman Mao, the Cultural Destruction Revolution, has affected the situation, and the preferential treatment of developing countries has been applied. With a lot of economic cooperation, it has become the world's second largest economy, and the People's Republic of China is moving in the opposite direction of what the United States thinks. Even if Hong Kong had a concession from Britain, China, which guaranteed one country, two systems for 50 years, broke its promise in 27 years. Britain should have a great responsibility, but it's really absurd not to get involved. Basically, the Democratic Party is pro-Chinese and the Republican Party is a strategic reciprocal relationship, and various boycott acts against China, whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, are expected, but under the surface It cannot be ruled out that they are holding hands deeply. Mr. Kissinger, who was Secretary of State under the Nixon administration, discussed the idea of splitting the Pacific into two at a press conference with Mr. Zhou Enlai, and he was still wary of Japan even after the war. I think he still does, but while recognizing Japan's autonomy, I feel that true independence is far from personal. The number of US forces in Japan of 55,000 is the largest in the world. There are 35,000 US troops in Germany, 12300 in Italy, and 26,000 in South Korea. The United Nations still does not exclude the three prewar Axis powers from the Enemy State Clause. Nevertheless, Japanese politicians have even argued about attacking enemy bases and amending the constitution. In fact, when it comes to constitutional amendments, it will probably require the approval of the US Congress. I think it is practically difficult for Japan, a defeated country, to change a part of the foundation of the postwar national polity without permission. The three-point set of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement, the Japan-US Nuclear Power Agreement, and the Japan-US Security Treaty must be the basic position that holds the fate of Japan's national polity. After the war, GHQ had a meeting with Emperor Showa under Commander-in-Chief MacArthur, and the statement "I don't care if I can protect the Japanese people ..." was recorded in an official document on the US side. It has not been. It is not well known how many times the press conference between Emperor Showa and Mr. MacArthur was held. You may think that it is usually only once. It is said that there were 11 press conferences between MacArthur and Emperor Showa after the war. It will continue until the Korean War has settled down. The San Francisco Peace Treaty is only with the United States, but the position of Emperor Showa (war responsibility) was unstable until the long meeting between the two. Courtney Whitney was responsible for the US side of the Constitution of Japan. The official document of Emperor Showa's remarks he left behind has been declassified, but I think the emperor's advocates should not read it. I don't know if this is the case, but since it remains as an official document, those who are interested in it are related to the national polity of postwar Japan, so please translate it. (Translation of a third party is not mentioned here.) The other day, it was reported that Emperor Showa sent a syllabary to the Combined Fleet Command the day before the attack on Pearl Harbor. This has also been declassified, and you can see the heart of Emperor Showa and his readiness for war. And what surprised me was that even post-war processing was mentioned. It seems natural for the Allies to argue that if there is a desire to end the war, it should be responsible for it. The general perception of historical facts is part of education and we are instilled with prejudice, but there is an aspect that the question is not dared to be asked. I think that Japan's postwar national polity was built through close negotiations between Mr. MacArthur and Emperor Showa. Basically, the Constitution of Japan does not resist even if the opponent does it, engagement is prohibited, and self-defense is not allowed. (There is no word of self-defense) Thus, the emperor became a symbolic existence from the prewar monarchy, and the security of the imperial family was guaranteed. The simple question is that the emperor's involvement in the appointment of the prime minister and each minister can be seen as a political part rather than a symbol. It must be taken as the fate of a defeated nation to entrust air superiority to the US military and live only with the umbrella of the United States. As long as there is a three-point set, there is no possibility that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will be in favor. Will Japan not be able to achieve true independence for the next 100 years? .. ..
Vol.0051 ... "The net deadline of the interglacial period and the historical civilization of the earth"
With December 2021 on the horizon, oil-producing countries with abundant reserves have revised their mining volumes downward due to concerns about future declines in crude oil prices, and crude oil prices have risen in the global market. It's going back and forth, but it's clear to everyone that the political aspirations and national strategies of each country are hidden and hidden. I personally wonder if the downward revision of crude oil mining volume is only the speculation of oil-producing countries. The temporary short-circuit thinking of releasing a part of the oil reserves of countries importing from oil-producing countries to prevent price increases is a matter of course, which leads to a backlash from oil-producing countries and leads to a further increase in oil prices. Is there no idea? The United States was an excellent oil producer, but the suspicion that it might depend on imports rather than exports comes first. President Biden's plan to release oil stockpiling is said to be a strategy to increase the approval rating in some reports. Japan should not have the capacity to release oil reserves. It can't be helped because it is a puppet national polity of the United States. Some say that the earth we live in right now is in the interglacial period. Formally referred to as the "Holocene glacial period," it began 12,000 years ago, at the end of the last 2.5 million Pleistocene glacial period. We were inhabited on this earth during a relatively warm climate surrounded by ice ages. Speaking of the beginning of the recorded history of humankind, the shared knowledge of 4000 years in China and 5000 years in Egypt may be the day when the breakup between the recorded history and Yara will come in the not too distant future. Looking at the current situation in the world, it seems unlikely that humankind has evolved very much into this century. I thought that the future of the movies "2001: A Space Odyssey" and "Star Trek" would all be possible in the era of the 20th century, but that was the situation that wholesalers couldn't wholesale. Returning to the story, the origin of crude oil cannot be mined inexhaustibly in the future because the dead bodies of living organisms from hundreds of millions of years ago were deposited on the seabed and caused a chemical reaction in the ground. Peak oil marks the time when oil is depleted, but it must come during this century. There is no certainty that fossil fuels are the original sin of CO2. There is no guarantee that it is correct, even if the Nobel laureates argue. For example, the breath that human beings exhale is CO2, and the burp and flatulence are CO2. Even the CO2 emitted by humankind, which is as small as 10 billion people, cannot be ridiculous. I am wondering how long the life of the sun will be, and the biggest concern is the slackness of humankind and the unscrupulous consumption of global resources. It is to do. A girl named Greta from Sweden is working on environmental issues, but the reality is that humankind has not evolved to the point where it can be solved by opposition movements and demonstrations alone.
